How ‘bout this market? Yesterday rates moved higher, and prices lower, after Factory Orders increased 1.8% in February, following a downwardly revised 3.5% drop in January, and six consecutive monthly decreases. So why wouldn’t rates come down? US stock markets continued their rally, and in fact most overseas stock markets improved. (Japan’s was helped by Toyota’s stock rallying after a bank agreed to help finance US car sales.) And it would appear that there is a change in mood about the economy: in spite of the continued bad news, investors appear to feel that the worst is behind us. Just tell that to some Detroit or Sacramento home owner! Maybe investors are just tired of sitting on piles of cash…
This morning the unemployment data came out pretty close to expected: U.S. employers cut 663,000 jobs in March, and the unemployment rate hit 8.5%, the highest since 1983 when Reagan was in office. And although February’s numbers were unrevised, January’s were changed to a loss of 741,000, the biggest decline since October 1949. Since December 2007, the U.S. economy has dropped 5.1 million jobs, with about two thirds of the losses occurring in the last five months. After the news, bond prices are down slightly, with the 10-yr yield currently sitting around 2.69% and mortgage prices a shade worse than yesterday afternoon. (Interestingly, with the high profit margins now built into mortgage pricing, in spite of the MBS market worsening yesterday, many originators decided to absorb the price hit instead of passing it along on their rate sheets in order to potentially help locks.)
As for interest rates they are hopping around daily. We have seen rates as low as 4.5% and as high as 5.375% just in a matter of days. My recommendation is getting an application in, getting approved with our IN HOUSE Underwriter, and lock when the rate is where you desire. Speaking of rates lets look back since rates were tracked back in 1971. I think 8% looks great right now, It will help fight inflation!!!!
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Jan |
Feb |
March |
April |
May |
June |
July |
Aug |
Sept |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Average |
|
1971 |
|
|
|
7.31% |
7.43% |
7.53% |
7.60% |
7.70% |
7.69% |
7.63% |
7.55% |
7.48% |
7.55% |
|
1972 |
7.44% |
7.32% |
7.29% |
7.29% |
7.37% |
7.37% |
7.40% |
7.40% |
7.42% |
7.42% |
7.43% |
7.44% |
7.39% |
|
1973 |
7.44% |
7.44% |
7.46% |
7.54% |
7.65% |
7.73% |
8.05% |
8.50% |
8.82% |
8.77% |
8.58% |
8.54% |
8.24% |
|
1974 |
8.54% |
8.46% |
8.41% |
8.58% |
8.97% |
9.09% |
9.28% |
9.59% |
9.96% |
9.98% |
9.79% |
9.62% |
9.43% |
|
1975 |
9.43% |
9.10% |
8.89% |
8.82% |
8.91% |
8.89% |
8.89% |
8.94% |
9.12% |
9.22% |
9.15% |
9.10% |
9.00% |
|
1976 |
9.02% |
8.81% |
8.76% |
8.73% |
8.76% |
8.85% |
8.93% |
9.90% |
8.98% |
8.92% |
8.81% |
8.79% |
8.96% |
|
1977 |
8.72% |
8.67% |
8.69% |
8.87% |
8.83% |
8.86% |
8.94% |
8.94% |
8.90% |
8.92% |
8.92% |
8.96% |
8.90% |
|
1978 |
9.01% |
9.14% |
9.20% |
9.35% |
9.57% |
9.71% |
9.74% |
9.78% |
9.76% |
9.86% |
10.11% |
10.35% |
9.80% |
|
1979 |
10.39% |
10.41% |
10.43% |
10.50% |
10.69% |
11.04% |
11.09% |
11.09% |
11.30% |
11.64% |
12.83% |
12.90% |
11.45% |
|
1980 |
12.88% |
13.04% |
15.28% |
16.32% |
14.26% |
12.71% |
12.19% |
12.56% |
13.20% |
13.79% |
14.21% |
14.79% |
13.78% |
|
1981 |
14.90% |
15.13% |
15.40% |
15.58% |
16.40% |
16.70% |
16.83% |
17.28% |
18.16% |
18.45% |
17.82% |
16.95% |
17.13% |
|
1982 |
17.48% |
17.60% |
17.16% |
16.89% |
16.68% |
16.70% |
16.82% |
16.27% |
15.43% |
14.61% |
13.82% |
13.62% |
15.65% |
|
1983 |
13.25% |
13.04% |
12.80% |
12.78% |
12.63% |
12.87% |
13.43% |
13.81% |
13.73% |
13.54% |
13.44% |
13.42% |
13.29% |
|
1984 |
13.37% |
13.23% |
13.39% |
13.65% |
13.94% |
14.42% |
14.67% |
16.47% |
14.35% |
14.13% |
13.64% |
13.18% |
14.27% |
|
1985 |
13.08% |
12.92% |
13.17% |
13.20% |
12.91% |
12.22% |
12.03% |
12.19% |
12.19% |
12.14% |
11.78% |
11.20% |
12.21% |
|
1986 |
10.89% |
10.71% |
10.08% |
9.94% |
10.15% |
10.69% |
10.51% |
10.20% |
10.01% |
9.98% |
9.70% |
9.32% |
10.06% |
|
1987 |
9.20% |
9.08% |
9.04% |
9.83% |
10.60% |
10.54% |
10.28% |
10.33% |
10.89% |
11.26% |
10.65% |
10.64% |
10.56% |
|
1988 |
10.38% |
9.89% |
9.93% |
10.20% |
10.46% |
10.46% |
10.43% |
10.60% |
10.48% |
10.30% |
10.27% |
10.61% |
10.42% |
|
1989 |
10.73% |
10.65% |
11.03% |
11.05% |
10.77% |
10.20% |
9.88% |
9.99% |
10.13% |
9.95% |
9.77% |
9.74% |
10.16% |
|
1990 |
9.90% |
10.20% |
10.27% |
10.37% |
10.48% |
10.16% |
10.04% |
10.10% |
10.18% |
10.17% |
10.01% |
9.67% |
10.13% |
|
1991 |
9.64% |
9.37% |
9.50% |
9.50% |
9.47% |
9.62% |
9.58% |
9.24% |
9.01% |
8.86% |
8.71% |
8.50% |
9.17% |
|
1992 |
8.43% |
8.76% |
8.94% |
8.85% |
8.67% |
8.51% |
8.13% |
7.98% |
7.92% |
8.09% |
8.31% |
8.21% |
8.30% |
|
1993 |
7.99% |
7.68% |
7.50% |
7.46% |
7.47% |
7.42% |
7.21% |
7.11% |
6.91% |
6.83% |
7.16% |
7.17% |
7.19% |
|
1994 |
7.07% |
7.15% |
7.80% |
8.32% |
8.60% |
8.40% |
8.61% |
8.51% |
8.64% |
8.93% |
9.17% |
9.20% |
8.71% |
|
1995 |
9.15% |
8.83% |
8.46% |
8.32% |
7.96% |
7.87% |
7.61% |
7.86% |
7.64% |
7.48% |
7.38% |
7.20% |
7.70% |
|
1996 |
7.03% |
7.08% |
7.62% |
7.93% |
8.07% |
8.32% |
8.25% |
8.00% |
8.23% |
7.92% |
7.62% |
7.60% |
7.99% |
|
1997 |
7.82% |
7.65% |
7.90% |
8.14% |
7.94% |
7.69% |
7.50% |
7.48% |
7.43% |
7.29% |
7.21% |
7.10% |
7.53% |
|
1998 |
6.99% |
7.04% |
7.13% |
7.14% |
7.14% |
7.00% |
6.95% |
6.92% |
6.72% |
6.71% |
6.87% |
6.74% |
6.91% |
|
1999 |
6.79% |
6.81% |
7.04% |
6.92% |
7.15% |
7.55% |
7.63% |
7.94% |
7.82% |
7.85% |
7.74% |
7.91% |
7.61% |
|
2000 |
8.21% |
8.33% |
8.24% |
8.15% |
8.52% |
8.29% |
8.15% |
8.03% |
7.91% |
7.80% |
7.75% |
7.38% |
8.00% |
|
2001 |
7.03% |
7.05% |
6.95% |
7.08% |
7.15% |
7.16% |
7.13% |
6.95% |
6.82% |
6.62% |
6.66% |
7.07% |
6.96% |
|
2002 |
7.00% |
6.89% |
7.01% |
6.99% |
6.81% |
6.65% |
6.49% |
6.29% |
6.09% |
6.11% |
6.07% |
6.05% |
6.39% |
|
2003 |
5.92% |
5.84% |
5.75% |
5.81% |
5.48% |
5.23% |
5.63% |
6.26% |
6.15% |
5.95% |
5.93% |
5.88% |
5.81% |
|
2004 |
5.71% |
5.64% |
5.45% |
5.83% |
6.27% |
6.29% |
6.06% |
5.87% |
5.75% |
5.72% |
5.73% |
5.75% |
5.92% |
|
2005 |
5.71% |
5.63% |
5.93% |
5.86% |
5.72% |
5.58% |
5.70% |
5.82% |
5.77% |
6.07% |
6.33% |
6.27% |
5.90% |
|
2006 |
6.15% |
6.25% |
6.32% |
6.51% |
6.60% |
6.68% |
6.76% |
6.52% |
6.40% |
6.36% |
6.24% |
6.14% |
6.47% |
|
2007 |
6.22% |
6.29% |
6.16% |
6.18% |
6.26% |
6.66% |
6.70% |
6.57% |
6.38% |
6.38% |
6.21% |
6.10% |
6.38% |
|
2008 |
5.76% |
5.92% |
5.97% |
5.92% |
6.04% |
6.32% |
6.43% |
6.48% |
6.04% |
6.20% |
6.09% |
5.29% |
6.09% |
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Historical Average |
9.14% |
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5% Range Months |
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6% Range Months |
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Interesting Facts: |
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> All Time High was October 1981 of 18.45% |
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> The all time LOW was in June of 2003 at 5.23% and we are near that right now at 5.29% |
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> In the First 30 years that rates were tracked (April 1971 – April 2001) rates were below 7% for only 12 months |
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1 response so far ↓
Mortgage // May 13, 2009 at 9:50 pm |
Yeah, It’s now looking better. From where you got the statistics.