Recovery in Site?

The roller coaster of economic news continues. (I guess it would be too easy if everything pointed to one outcome.) Last week rates improved, as they did again yesterday morning after Asian stocks fell significantly. Oil, gold, and other commodities were down (although sugar is at a 28 year high, which doesn’t help people who make jam at home and kids who eat Captain Crunch).

How far can rates drop? I haven’t heard too many agents complain about rates in general, as mortgage rates remain near their lows but the government’s borrowing needs are at historical highs. This limits the amount that rates will be able to fall so as to attract buyers of our debt, and most analysts believe that soon the buyers of our debt will be demanding higher yields. Last week the Fed left overnight rates unchanged. So what? If anything, what the last year or two has taught us is that mortgage rates have little or no correlation with Fed Funds, so even though CNBC and the media make a big deal out of the Fed’s decision, mortgage rates are not impacted. Granted, any changes in rates can impact the Prime Rate (currently 3.25%), but that obviously is not the same as a 30-yr mortgage rate. So how do mortgage rates change? Mortgage rates are the result of supply and demand forces, just like any other security that is bought and sold in the open market. Securities that are backed by mortgages trade in the market, just like other fixed-income debt, and just like stocks which garner the headlines, with the prices in turn determining rates.

Get your approval today before the $8000 expires on November 30, 2009.